Weekly (distribution list)
THE WEEK AHEAD Flush earnings still help, but higher interest rates and trade concerns hurt the bull case for stocks. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT Not much happens when businesses, investors, and consumers decide to pull in their horns. Fortunately, the past couple of years have had most people feeling relatively optimistic about the outlook. Consumers are benefitting from full employment, rising wages, and increased wealth. Business owners and investors are reaping the benefits from a growing economy and large profits. For the past several years, no attractive “risk free” investment alternative existed to compete against riskier assets. One way to think about…
THE WEEK AHEAD We update our barometer and tactical positioning for June. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT Our forecast path for the WCA Fundamental Conditions Barometer declined in June (chart, below), and now sits just below 50. The decline in the index from above 70 at the start of the year suggests that risk appetite has waned somewhat. Accordingly, we trimmed back the equity exposure in the satellite portion of tactical portfolios to 45% from 55% last month. Why is this happening? A closer look at the data shows some evidence of softening in Europe, a build in domestic inventories, wider credit spreads,…
THE WEEK AHEAD As the economy enters its tenth year of growth since the last recession, we look at just how far we’ve come. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT We will soon begin the tenth year of economic expansion since the last recession ended. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recovery from the last recession began in July 2009. With most of our tea-leaves pointing toward continued growth, we thought a look back at where we’ve come from is appropriate. Amid the turmoil of the Great Recession and 2009 Financial Crisis, the economy and financial markets were in distress. The…
WASHINGTON CROSSING ADVISORS THE WEEK AHEAD WCA Barometer holds steady for second month as markets weigh growth, inflation, and rates. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT Strong global demand has driven growth and may now be pushing up against supply constraints. Bottlenecks are leading to higher prices and raising concerns about inflation. Cash and bond markets have been pricing in expectations for firmer inflation and higher policy rates. Consider global commodity prices. Oil, aluminum, wood pulp, and lumber prices all began to spike a little over a year-ago. Oil is up 20%, aluminum is up 15%, pulp is up 25%, and lumber is up…
WASHINGTON CROSSING ADVISORS THE WEEK AHEAD Producer, Consumer, Import, and Export prices for April released this week. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT Fixed Income Focus Corporations continue to exhibit good financial health, which has helped drive default rates down. According to Moody’s Investment Research, defaults by corporate borrowers are below average. Last year, about 1.4% of all corporate issues globally defaulted. The average since the early 1980’s is 1.5%, and the high water mark was 5% back in 2009. The decline in defaults stands in sharp contrast to rising corporate indebtedness as outstanding non-financial corporate credit reaches a record high as a percent…
WASHINGTON CROSSING ADVISORS THE WEEK AHEAD Big week for data and Fed policy this week. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT We’ve seen some slowing in growth lately, but last week’s advance U.S. Gross Domestic Product report was encouraging. Readers of the Monday Morning Minute know that incoming data raised some red flags in the first quarter. Our Fundamental Conditions Barometer peaked with the passage of the tax act in December, declined through the remainder of the winter, and stabilized in April. According to last week’s report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the U.S. economy grew by an estimated 2.3% in the first…
THE WEEK AHEAD We look at how rising interest rates could harm returns for some highly-leveraged firms. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT Some firm are paying more to borrow money, which is weighing on stock price performance. The world’s most widely used benchmark for pricing loans and specifying financial contracts is the London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR. The rate for 30-day LIBOR stands near 2.4%, about double the level of a year ago, and most of the rise occurred in the last four months (chart, below). Over $5 trillion of business and consumer loans reset relative to LIBOR, making this a key…
We see the economy on a growth track, but after a year of strong returns and historically low volatility, some moderation to growth and risk appetite seems reasonable. Continued economic growth, without a notable pickup in inflation, remains our dominant view. Last year’s tax changes, and new federal spending initiatives, have the potential to lift investment and speed up growth. Risks to our outlook include rising trade and geopolitical tension, elevated asset prices in some areas, and rising interest rates. During the quarter, we made a few tactical adjustments to portfolios. We tilted portfolios toward large cap domestic value, and…
THE WEEK AHEAD Markets reprice risk as trade and interest rate risks emerge. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 1,400 points last week, against a backdrop of trade actions and reprisals. Buying appears to be on hold, at least for now, following a year or more of solid gains for stocks. It is always hard to pinpoint which, the chicken or the egg, comes first when talking about markets and the economy. To our eye, the two work in conjunction and feed back into each other. We all recognize that an improving economy tends to promote…
THE WEEK AHEAD Federal Reserve meets this week and is widely expected to deliver another rate increase. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT We are seeing a small downshift in the pace of growth, based on incoming data. While not outright deterioration, there appears to be some softening in global economic momentum. This is not yet a major concern of ours, but some mixed signals have caught our attention. Here is a partial list of some of some of the items that have shown recent weakness: 1) A three month decline in Chinese manufacturing surveys; 2) A three month decline in German Business confidence;…
THE WEEK AHEAD We assess the developing shift in fiscal policy and conclude that it is near-term bullish for growth and bearish for rates. MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT The recently published Budget of the United States, Fiscal Year 2019 introduces a large increase in government spending and cuts in taxes. The net effect of these changes introduces a very large swing in the government deficit this year and next. The deficit is expected to increase to 4.7% of gross domestic product from 3.4% in 2017, and this assumes the economy expands at a 3% clip, substantially faster than the 2% pace we’ve…
THE WEEK AHEAD MACROECONOMIC INSIGHT The drop in stocks from January 26 erased 10% from the market averages. There have been at least two dozen declines of 10% or better over the last 30-years, to put things in perspective. Very few other indicators show a spreading of concern into other areas of the markets or the economy. In the past week, corporate credit spreads remained unchanged; forecast inflation was down only slightly; and S&P 500 earnings forecasts rose. Investors can take some comfort in knowing that a broader reading of the market’s “tea leaves” continues to point toward growth. Source:…
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