Weekly (distribution list)
We believe a link exists between a business and its stock price. This is why we spend time thinking about businesses when building portfolios. If there was not a link it would be useless to spend time doing fundamental research. Considering the past five years’ volatile market environment, we thought now would be a good time to see if fundamentals, especially relating to quality, translated into differences in stock price performance. The Test (2018-2022) We set the stage by studying businesses and price performance from 2018-2022. From the onset, we gathered fundamental data on large U.S. companies by market value….
Quality companies grow when they make investments and expand profits. Other companies get in trouble when they make unprofitable investments. The whole idea behind investing in stocks (equity) is to grow. Fixed income is generally considered suitable for stable income; hence the name “fixed.” Long-run stock investing, by contrast, requires survival and profitable growth. Even though profitability alone does not guarantee the “best” investment in each year, focusing on high profitability is a good start because such companies are more likely to grow and create value, especially as funding costs rise. The Profitability-Value Nexus We are not saying that all…
We are starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel. The stock market is up for the year, inflation has begun to decelerate, and the labor market shows continued strength. These positive signals push back against the recession and inflation story that hung over markets for most of the past year. The improved backdrop is also reflected in our WCA Barometer (chart A, below). While the current forecast reading of 48 (the blue dotted line) is not robust, it is anticipating some stability and lift after a long downward slide. While the lift could prove fleeting, it…
With 2022 in the rearview mirror, we have hit the ground running, eager to shake off the previous year’s dour market mood. Despite the prospects of recession, persistent (albeit declining) inflation, and restrictive central bank policies, we see pockets of momentum and optimism in 2023, particularly in foreign developed markets. For the past decade, U.S. equities dominated and were the most sought after markets for risk assets. However, this situation is changing. Rising Returns One month into the New Year, we are seeing strong gains across the board in foreign markets. The following table provides local currency and USD returns…
High-quality stocks beat low-quality stocks in every problematic market for the past twenty years, but not in 2022 (table below). In each bearish phase, high quality held up better than low. However, this was not the case this year. Year-to-date, the WCA High-Quality index is down 15%, while the WCA Low-Quality index is down just 5%. While this trend is changing with recent performance once again favoring high quality (more on this below), this year’s performance of high-and-low quality needs some examination. High vs. Low-Quality Performance in Bad Markets Before doing so, we remind readers that quality is important but…
The International Monetary Fund delivered a sobering assessment of growth in their latest outlook. High inflation, war in Ukraine, and lingering supply issues are culprits. While credit spreads and earnings forecasts appear reasonably steady, our own assessment of data points to slowdown. As we look for signs of a turn, the weight of evidence points to some continued caution for now.
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised a red flag, saying some member banks have ignored warnings of risks associated with leveraged finance, according to Bloomberg News. The ECB hit a handful of European banks with capital charges in an attempt to encourage the banks to exercise greater caution. These actions come amid growing concern in Europe over a looming energy crisis, ongoing war in Ukraine, and struggles at some financial institutions. These pressures are evident in both confidence indicators like business confidence (graph A, below) and measures of financial stress (graph B, below). Graph A Graph B Rise…
Earnings drive stock prices over time. This simple truth is evident in the past century’s market performance. Over the past 100 years, both the S&P Composite index and S&P Composite index earnings gained about 6-7% per year. The profits, along with the market’s appraisal of the value of those earnings, rose and fell year-to-year. Sometimes, those swings in earnings and valuations were large, creating excitement and anxiety. What drove the earnings growth? Fortunately, we see an excellent and rational cause for the growth in earnings. As the chart below shows, we can trace growth in stock prices to economic growth…
Central Bank all in to fight inflation Markets signal inflation to fade Rates to push higher still Policymaker credibility key to fight Valuations more attractive. We remain cautious based on incoming data and enter the final quarter underweight risk assets.However, policy priorities seem to be having some positive effect on expected inflation, despiteupsetting financial markets. This is a difficult and complex environment, and we continue to followour tactical discipline in navigating a very unusual year. While we are not out of the woods yet,valuations are becoming better as are longer-run expectations for returns.
Investors have done well to heed Marty Zweig’s advice “Don’t fight the Fed” since he published his 1970 book, Winning on Wall Street. The idea has generally stood the test of time. The most recent two major recessions and market declines, those in 2000-2002 and again in 2007-2008, were preceded by Federal Reserve (Fed) policy tightening. So too were the recessions and bear markets of 1973-1974, 1980-1982, and 1991-1992. The 1987 market crash was, likewise, preceded by rising rates. In each case, efforts by the Fed to rein in inflation via tighter monetary policy proved effective in fighting inflation, but…
We critique existing “style” investing frameworks as popularized in various “value” and “growth” indices. We cite three critical problems with how the indices are constructed, and discuss risks that come with overly strict adherence thereupon. Lastly, we offer an alternative framework as a potentially better way to think about investments.
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