MACRO VIEW We are not in a recession, but we are seeing data that is uncharacteristically weak for an expansion. The last quarterly GDP report showed 0.7% annualized growth for the latest quarter with real GDP up just 1.8% over the year prior (below). This growth is too weak for comfort as it leaves the economy more exposed to a potential recession in the event of a unforeseen shock. Headline inflation of 0.4% is still well below the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) target and core personal consumption expenditure prices are up just 1.2% through December compared to a year earlier. January’s…
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