Insight & Commentaries
In our last commentary, we pointed to the ongoing slide in net new credit creation by households (the largest component of the private sector in the United States) as a historic event that signaled a dramatic change in the country’s financial inner workings. This raises two important questions. First, can government spending spur a sustainable recovery in the absence of private sector borrowing and spending? Second, will the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government be able to stimulate risk-taking as households, corporations, and investors seek to reduce leverage? The answer to these two questions will largely determine what kind of…
A quick look at the remarkable decline in consumer demand for money and credit through the lens of the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds Data released today. The data shows the first decline in household net new borrowing on record. This suggests the monetary transmission mechanism behind the Fed’s stimulative monetary policy efforts is not functioning well given de-leveraging efforts.
Action steps for the current market environment, and a thoughtful discussion about how this downturn differs from a traditional recession. The anatomy of the downturn is examined along with thoughts about how a bull market might eventually take hold.
New data on credit suggests potential for systemic weakness that could inhibit recovery. Raising more cash in portfolios and introducing WCA Credit Thermometer Index.
Last weekend’s historic events restructure Wall Street, in this commentary, we review where we are and implications for portfolio strategy.
GSE action suggests major long-run changes, but offers little to improve the current recessionary conditions facing economy.
An analysis of the economy’s performance as seen in the GDP report.
A look at market performance during profit contractions.
Portfolio strategies for investing during recession.
Profit and growth expectations remain too high, but price corrections should create opportunities in 2008.
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