Insight & Commentaries
Profit and growth expectations remain too high, but price corrections should create opportunities in 2008.
Given all the discussion about the “Goldilocks Economy,” we evaluate the economy’s health from the point of view of the NBER’s Recession Dating Committee.
With risk rising, we identify five key aspects of the economy to focus on for signs of improvement.
The Fed’s first rate cut coincides with a turning point for the economy. The critical issue is not what the Federal Reserve does with rates but how the economy responds in turn. We lay out three possible scenarios for the way forward.
We see the seven-year value cycle as now over. Instead, we are focusing our portfolio recommendations on growth.
We believe some markets are mis-pricing risk. Additionally, new data from the second-quarter Flow of Funds Report shows a very sharp falloff in net new borrowing by households; slippage in economy-wide profits; and an accelerating trend toward substituting corporate debt for equity.
Recent data shows some slippage in credit creation at the household level. We raise our recession expectation to 50% from 33% and, as a result, lower our S&P 500 year-end price target to 1,430.
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