Q4 Tactical Asset Allocation 2019
Trade and Brexit worries are cutting into the outlook for global growth. Most forecasts now call for slower growth next year, below our 3.5% base case expectation. While growth estimates are holding up reasonably well in the United States, global central banks are easing. The Federal Reserve is also easing monetary policy, which is helping to support financial conditions. A plunge in global interest rates is raising recessionary red flags and forward looking cash and bond returns are declining as investors chase yield. Equity allocations are trimmed to neutral given signs of cooling in the data. Tactical tilts favor value over growth based on relative valuations, domestic over foreign on better relative growth prospects, and gold over high yield as trade and Brexit uncertainties play out.