• Recession Signals Mount
• Inflation Weighs on Confidence
• Profit Outlook Holds Up (For Now)
• Better Valuations a Plus for Long-View
• Maintaining Caution Near-Term

As we write this, more and more observers are calling for a recession in the United States. Is this a far-fetched or exaggerated claim? Probably not. After all, the textbook definition of a recession is two quarters of back-to-back contraction. For the first quarter, the U.S. economy shrunk by 1.6%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. And in early July, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimated the second quarter could shrink by as much as 2%. Unless the situation changes soon, it is entirely plausible that we are already in a “technical” recession.