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March economic data is disappointing so far, but far from recessionary. Last week’s retail sales report for last month was -0.1% compared to an expectation for a +0.3% increase and last month’s gain of 0.4%. Taken by itself, one month’s slippage in sales would not alter our assessment for continued slow growth. However, a series of other recent reports suggest a clear loss of momentum headed early in the second quarter.