Muniwatch — December 2020
After rising in October, Muni yields fell dramatically in November, outperforming yields on U.S. Treasuries. Munis rallied with Treasuries after the election results were announced but did not track the selloff in Treasuries after successful COVID vaccine trials were revealed. Issuance slowed in November to only about $20 billion, causing a renewed supply and demand imbalance, a dramatic shift after October’s issuance broke monthly records and pushed total 2020 issuance to a yearly record. Even with yields resetting lower, Muni mutual funds continued their streak of inflows, taking in another $6 billion in cash. Credit spreads continued to fall as economic conditions improved and the market continued to search for yield in this low-rate environment. We believe credit risks remain high, especially with the recent resurgence in cases, but these technical factors have driven the outperformance in Munis.